ASML Posts Record €11.7 Billion Quarter and Says Chip-Tool Supply Will Fall Short Through 2028

ASML Holding NV, the Dutch maker of the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that print the world's most advanced chips, reported record third-quarter net sales of €11.7 billion on 14 October and warned that the capacity it plans for 2027 and 2028 "will not fully meet the demand of our customers," according to its quarterly results release. Net income reached €5.0 billion, and the company guided fourth-quarter sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion.

The numbers matter less than the admission behind them. The single company that every leading-edge chipmaker depends on says it cannot build tools fast enough for the AI investment cycle, and customers are already asking about 2029 and 2030.

What did ASML report?

Total net sales for the quarter ended 27 September rose to €11,662 million from €9,326 million in the second quarter, according to the filing. Gross margin climbed to 57.5% from 54.0%, and net income rose to €4,960 million from €2,918 million. ASML sold 113 new lithography systems, up from 86 in the previous quarter.

Installed Base Management, the business of servicing and upgrading machines already in customers' fabs, brought in €3,289 million, above the company's own guidance. In its account of the earnings call, MarketBeat reported that Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen attributed that outperformance mainly to demand for productivity upgrades on EUV and DUV (deep ultraviolet) systems.

Of the €8.4 billion in net system sales, about €4.1 billion came from EUV and €4.3 billion from non-EUV tools, MarketBeat reported. Logic chips accounted for 54% of system sales and memory for 46%.

Full-year 2026 net sales guidance is now €44 billion to €45 billion with a gross margin of about 56%, which InvestingLive noted raised the low end from €43 billion. TIKR put the implied growth at about 36%.

A caution on quality of earnings: net income included roughly €500 million from a higher valuation of ASML's stake in the French AI company Mistral, according to MarketBeat and TIKR.

Why is supply short through 2028?

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said shortages in advanced logic and memory chips have widened, and that customers expect demand to exceed supply "through at least 2028," MarketBeat reported. That expectation is prompting chipmakers to accelerate their own factory expansion plans, which in turn raises orders for lithography tools.

ASML's release says it plans a 30% increase in low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity in 2027 and is investigating a further 30% increase for 2028. Management now says even that will fall short, and the company is studying how to go beyond 30% in 2028. The release adds that some customers want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. MarketBeat reported that ASML has not accepted those later orders yet because it is still assessing total demand and capacity for those years.

On the production side, ASML expects to build about 65 low-NA EUV systems in 2026, up almost 50% from 44 in 2025, according to MarketBeat's account of the call. It expects a similar number of DUV immersion systems to 2025. Fouquet said Carl Zeiss, the optics supplier, and other suppliers are not currently seen as bottlenecks, a claim that will be tested if capacity plans are enlarged again.

The release attributes rising customer forecasts to "their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments." In plain terms, ASML's order book is a proxy for how long the largest buyers of AI hardware believe the build-out will last.

What does it mean for pricing and High-NA?

Dassen said price increases on key high-volume products should begin to contribute in 2027, with their full effect from 2028, and that they are not expected to materially affect 2026, according to MarketBeat. TIKR reported that the same call guided fourth-quarter gross margin to about 57%, slightly below the third quarter's 57.5%, which Dassen linked to ramp costs from building new capacity.

For the next-generation High-NA EUV machines, Fouquet said Intel has exposed more than 1 million wafers on them, with results that meet or exceed comparable low-NA layers, MarketBeat reported. Per ASML, Samsung plans High-NA high-volume manufacturing in 2028 and TSMC in 2030, and fleet availability is near 90%. ASML plans to begin shipping the NXE:3800F, rated at 260 wafers per hour versus 230 for the current NXE:3800E, in small quantities in early 2027.

The ASML release contains no High-NA-specific figures and no bookings number; it says only that order-book momentum "continues to increase quarter on quarter this year."

How did the market react?

The reaction was mixed. According to InvestingLive, ASML's Amsterdam shares rose about 2% in early trade to near €1,534, while the Nasdaq-listed shares fell about 3.9% to about $1,650. InvestingLive attributed part of the Nasdaq weakness to a hot US consumer price index print, rather than to ASML itself.

TIKR noted that quarterly sales of €11.66 billion were marginally below the €11.72 billion analysts expected, even as net profit of €4.96 billion beat an estimate of €4.1 billion. TIKR said the stock fell on 15 October and that investors appeared focused on margins after a strong run; the article did not state the size of that decline.

What happens next?

Three things are worth watching. First, whether ASML announces capacity beyond the planned 30% increases for 2027 and 2028, and how quickly its supplier network can follow. Second, whether it begins accepting orders for 2029 and 2030, which would extend its visibility well past any current AI spending announcement. Third, how much of the price increases customers absorb in 2027 and 2028.

China remains a swing factor. MarketBeat reported that China should account for roughly 20% of ASML's 2026 sales, though the figure was not attributed to a named speaker, and the company's release gives no regional breakdown.

What we don't know yet

ASML did not disclose a third-quarter bookings figure, so the claim that orders are rising rests on management's statement. The size of any additional 2028 capacity is unquantified, and ASML has not said what a shortfall would mean for individual customers' delivery slots.

What is clear is the shape of the constraint. The bottleneck in AI hardware is moving upstream from chips to the machines that make them, and ASML's own guidance now says that bottleneck is unlikely to clear before 2029.