Countries Hedge Between US-Led Pax Silica and China-Backed WAICO as Washington Presses Them to Choose

Countries caught between the US-led Pax Silica coalition and China's World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO) are trying to keep access to both, but the room to hedge may be shrinking, according to an Associated Press report dated 25 October. Kazakhstan, a country of about 21 million people, is the test case: it is the only known country to have joined both blocs, and the AP report, republished by Daily Sabah, shows it caught between a US warning and Chinese investment.

The dispute is about more than diplomacy. Pax Silica ties members to US-aligned supply chains for chips, minerals and computing infrastructure, while WAICO offers governance cooperation and training. Governments choosing between them are also choosing whose hardware, models and standards their economies will rely on.

What are Pax Silica and WAICO?

Pax Silica was introduced in December 2025 by Jacob Helberg, the US Deputy Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, and covers critical raw materials, energy, advanced manufacturing, semiconductors and AI infrastructure, according to ForkLog's account of a Reuters report. After a June summit in Washington, 24 countries signed its declaration, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Israel, India, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union. Italy joined in August.

WAICO was launched on 16 July in Shanghai when 29 countries signed its founding agreement, the same report said. Members include Russia, Belarus, Serbia, Brazil, Pakistan, Indonesia and about ten African countries. No G7 country joined. TechTimes added that India sent a junior delegation and declined membership, and that WAICO has a Council and Secretariat but no binding rules, enforcement, dispute resolution or public budget formula. Chinese leader Xi Jinping pledged 5,000 training and seminar slots for developing countries over five years, according to the same article.

What did Washington say?

The US State Department drafted a letter to the 35 countries that signed a June joint statement on AI capabilities, warning that joining a competing initiative would bar them from Pax Silica, ForkLog reported, citing Reuters. The draft reads: "Being part of everything means being part of nothing", and urges partners to "make a conscious choice". It does not name China, though a Reuters source pointed to it. Reuters saw only an undated draft and could not confirm when, or whether, it would be sent. The State Department declined to comment, and the Chinese embassy in Washington opposed politicising trade and technology issues.

TechTimes reported that the State Department later confirmed the draft existed but did not endorse its language. In the AP report, the State Department said countries engaging with the rival initiative cannot be trusted as Pax Silica partners; the report as republished quotes it only in part, so the full statement is not reproduced here.

Why is Kazakhstan the test case?

According to the AP report, Kazakhstan's AI minister, Zhaslan Madiyev, visited Washington in June and, three weeks later, signed WAICO founding membership in Shanghai alongside 28 other initial founding countries. ForkLog's Reuters-based account adds that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attended the Shanghai conference about a month after Kazakhstan joined Pax Silica in June.

The economics explain the dual move. The AP said an Nvidia-linked investment deal in Kazakhstan is worth up to $10 billion, while Chinese foreign direct investment in the country hit a record $2.8 billion in 2025. Xi met Tokayev in July. Dana Masalimova, a former Kazakh diplomat and Harvard center associate, told the AP: "Everyone is hedging," and "We don't want this binary choice."

Who else is hedging?

The AP report described several other governments trying to hold both options open. Singapore is considering joining WAICO and hosts an Anthropic office. Saudi Arabia's Humain launched a platform in September built on a Chinese open model. France's Mistral released a model this month that reportedly outperforms some advanced Chinese models. The AP also said that AidData at William & Mary counts Chinese official-sector AI-related grants and loans in at least 77 low- and middle-income countries.

Experts quoted by the AP argued that the choice is rarely binary in practice. Aalok Mehta of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Wadhwani AI Center said that "every country in the world in some way or another is thinking about AI sovereignty". US officials and AI companies accuse China of "distillation", copying the outputs of US models, and Beijing denies this, according to the AP.

What is Europe doing?

TechTimes, in an opinion-leaning piece, reported that China formally invited the European Commission to join WAICO, according to three diplomats, and that the Commission briefed national experts around 21 October. Asked publicly, a Commission spokesperson denied receiving any official offer. TechTimes itself gave the denial date as 21 October in one place and 23 October in another, and its claims could not be independently verified for this article.

The EU joined Pax Silica on 25 June despite objections from France, TechTimes said, and as part of a broader trade framework agreed to buy at least $40 billion of American AI chips. Germany's digital ministry said it has no plans to join WAICO. The EU was not among the 35 countries addressed in the draft US letter.

What happens next?

TechTimes named three things to watch: whether Washington turns its warning into a binding condition of Pax Silica membership, whether any G7-adjacent country joins WAICO, and whether WAICO builds real institutional capacity. As of October, none of the G7 had joined, and neither bloc has published a mechanism for enforcing exclusivity.

What we don't know yet

Sources disagree on counts: ForkLog and TechTimes say the draft letter went to 35 countries, other reports say 34, and membership totals differ by outlet and date. It is unconfirmed whether the State Department letter has been sent in any form. No outlet read for this article has shown that Washington has forced any partner to leave Pax Silica, and Kazakhstan remains a member of both. Until Washington acts on its warning, the pressure remains a signal, and the countries hedging between the blocs are testing how far it goes.